Perhaps affected by profit-taking, spot gold once fell below the 2900 mark, reaching an intraday low of $2888.38, and then recovered some of its losses. As of now, the price of gold is 2924.18.
US President Trump announced an investigation into the copper industry. Officials said Trump prefers to impose copper tariffs rather than quotas. The copper industry is a national security issue. Based on the forecast of electric vehicle and Al demand, there will be a shortage of copper. The timetable for the investigation is undetermined, and the tariff level is undetermined.
British media: Ukraine agreed to the US mineral agreement after the US gave up its demand for $500 billion in potential revenue; foreign media revealed that the Ukrainian cabinet suggested signing the mineral agreement on Wednesday; US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Hope to establish a partnership with allies in the field of mineral processing.
The Ukrainian parliament supports Zelensky's extension of his term, Musk continues to call for elections, and Zelensky plans to go to Washington on Friday to meet with Trump.
Trump: Sanctions on Russia will be lifted at some point.
US consumer confidence in February hit the largest single-month drop in more than three years, and pessimism about the future has returned. According to the Conference Board data, the consumer confidence index fell 7 points to 98.3 in February, and the expectations index fell 9.3 points to 72.9. This is the first time since June 2024 that the expectations index has fallen below the critical value of 80, which indicates an economic recession.
The U.S. House of Representatives plans to conduct a wide-ranging review of the Fed's rate hike decisions to assess whether inflation should take precedence over employment.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields should "naturally" decline, and the economy should be "reprivatized". Tariffs have three major goals.
Gold rose slightly in early Asian trading, possibly due to a technical rebound in near-month gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a sharp drop overnight. However, demand for safe-haven assets may keep gold prices near historical highs. Market volatility intensified after U.S. President Trump said he would impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada as planned next week. Such remarks have reduced market hopes for easing trade tensions and boosted bullish sentiment on gold.
Gold is still sideways, and the market is trying to figure out whether it will maintain its upward trend. I think it will eventually, because there are still a lot of geopolitical issues. Having said that, I think the situation now is that investors are looking for every short-term pullback as an opportunity to get long again. If we break below the $2,900 level, then we may fall to the $2,800 level, which is where the 50-day moving average is.
Really don't see anything that indicates we won't reach the $3,000 level. It's basically been straight up since Christmas, so some sideways is not a bad thing, which makes a lot of sense. Now the question becomes what happens when we reach the $3,000 level, which is an important psychological level that will attract a lot of headlines.
Spot gold fell sharply during the U.S. trading session on Tuesday, breaking below the $2,900 mark at one point, erasing gains earlier this week. Spot gold did not advance further after hitting a record high, triggering profit-taking by bulls. However, the market is still concerned about the tariffs that the U.S. government plans to impose. Trump put tariffs on Canada and Mexico back on the negotiating table, saying that he plans to "push forward" again after announcing a one-month delay.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of spot gold shows that the corrective decline may continue, especially if the price of gold falls below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently around $2,889. The long-term 100 and 200 SMAs continue to move upward, far below the short-term averages, limiting the potential for continued bearishness. Finally, the relative strength index (RSI) is almost vertically downward, reflecting the strength of sellers, but it remains above the midline, which is not enough to confirm a deeper decline.
Looking at the 4H chart, the bearish case is more solid. Gold has fallen below the 20-period moving average, currently at $2933.9, which has become a dynamic resistance level. At the same time, gold is testing the 100-period moving average, while the relative strength index (RSI) is firmly moving downward near the oversold reading. If the support near the 100-period moving average is broken, the decline may extend to the next relevant level, the monthly high of $2817.04 in January.
Resistance reference: 2921.50, 2636.20
Support reference: 2908, 2879.95, 2863.60, 2855.45
Gold prices are consolidating below $3,000, building momentum for the next move. As energy builds, a breakout above $3,000 could be just around the corner. As gold prices rise, I will keep a close eye on the performance of gold futures prices at round numbers every 100, as they are often key support and resistance levels. For example, $2,800 was a peak in late October, and gold's breakout above this level about a month ago signaled a strong bullish breakout. Last week, gold tested the $2,900 support level several times, including during Friday's sharp pullback, and each time it quickly rebounded. This resilience is a strong indicator of gold's underlying strength.
At this point, I expect $2,900 to have become solid support, with the next key hurdle being gold’s push toward and eventual breakout above $3,000, a psychologically significant and strong resistance level.
If gold can convincingly close above $3,000, we enter a true “vacuum” zone where there is no significant resistance. I believe we will then see a parabolic rise – a surge more violent than anything we have seen so far. If gold follows the pattern of the last three rate cut cycles, that would mean a climb to around $3,380.
On a smaller scale, gold has formed a potential bull flag pattern over the past week – a continuation pattern that signals further gains after a confirmed breakout. We still need to wait for a confirmed breakout with volume support. If this pattern pans out, it would provide momentum for gold to break through $3,000.
Another support for gold's rise is that the large-cap VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) broke a more than 10-year-old triangle pattern (as shown in the attached figure), which is a strong signal that a major bull market is underway. Last year, the gold bull market was largely driven by Asian central banks and investors, and Western investors have not yet joined. Instead, they have been focused on chasing "bull coins" and Internet bubble 2.0 stocks - assets that are destined to implode. Now GDX's breakout reflects a change in Western investors' attitude towards gold.